The risk that HIV infection will progress to AIDS depends on both your CD4+ cell count and your viral load (how much virus is found in your blood).

The following table is based on studies of untreated HIV-infected men who have sex with men.

CD4+ cell counts of 201 to 350 cells per microliter (UL) and:

Viral load	Develop AIDS within 3 years	Develop AIDS within 6 years	Develop AIDS within 9 years
<501* <1,501**	0%	-	-
501?,000* 1,501?,000**	-	20%	32%
3,001?0,000* 7,001?0,000**	7%	44%	66%
10,000?0,000* 20,000?5,000**	36%	72%	85%
Greater than 30,000* Greater than 55,000**	64%	90%	93%

* copies/mL by bDNA test method

** copies/mL by RT-PCR test method

CD4+ cell counts greater than 350 cells per microliter (UL) and:

Viral load	Develop AIDS within 3 years	Develop AIDS within 6 years	Develop AIDS within 9 years
<501* <1,501**	2%	6%	13%
500?,000* 1,500?,000**	2%	16%	30%
3,000?0,000* 7,000?0,000**	7%	30%	54%
10,000?0,000* 20,000?5,000**	15%	51%	74%
Greater than 30,000* Greater than 55,000**	40%	72%	85%

* copies/mL by bDNA test method

** copies/mL by RT-PCR test method

References Citations
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (2003). Guidelines for the Use of Antiretroviral Agents in HIV-Infected Adults and Adolescents.